Ropescast

In this episode of ROPESCAST, Ksenia Svetlova sits down with Dr. Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, who offers an interesting perspective on the shifting strategic landscape of the region.

The discussion centers on Iran’s proxies and the evolving dynamics of relations between Tehran and Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Dr. Vakil explains how these groups have institutionalized themselves as both political, military and social forces.She paints a rather complicated picture of what has happened since the beginning of the Iran war, illustrating why a purely military approach to defeating these groups often fails to address the underlying regional reality.

A significant portion of the conversation interrogates the decision-making process within the current U.S. administration. Dr. Vakil analyzes what she describes as a “hollowing out” of regional expertise in Washington and cautions against the dangerous allure of seeking “easy wins” against the Islamic Republic—a regime that operates on a strategic calculus built over decades of survival.

The episode concludes with a look at the Palestinian arena and the influence of the war in Iran on it.

Chapters:

00:00 – Welcome to ROPESCAST

02:13 – “Did Anyone Expect This War?”

03:50 – How October 7 Reshaped the Middle East

05:02 – Israel’s Miscalculation on Iran

06:32 – How Iran Built the “Axis of Resistance”

09:45 – Why Hezbollah & Hamas Can’t Be Defeated Militarily

15:27 – After Soleimani: The Axis Reinvents Itself

21:37 – Washington’s Iran Expertise “Hollowed Out”

26:31 – A New Middle East Security Order?

34:44 – “The Real War Was Disinformation

39:15 – Can This Conflict End Through Negotiation?

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In a special 50th episode of ROPESCAST, Ksenia Svetlova sits down with Ahmed Khuzaie, a strategic analyst from Bahrain who doesn't pull any punches when it comes to the reality of Gulf security.

We recorded this as the region continues to deal with the messy aftermath of the war in Iran and the persistent weight of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ahmed has a fascinating take on the Abraham Accords—he respects the history they made but argues they’ve already reached their limit. He walks us through his vision for "Abraham Accords 2.0," a necessary evolution designed to handle the much more complex security threats we’re seeing today.

One of the most striking parts of our conversation is how he clarifies Bahrain’s stance on Tehran. While some neighbors have wavered or tried different diplomatic paths, Ahmed explains why Manama has stayed remarkably consistent. For Bahrain the Iranian threat was never a theory; it’s a reality they’ve lived with, which is why they’ve maintained a firm policy against normalization with the Islamic Republic.

We also talk about how the war has fundamentally shifted what the Gulf cares about most, and whether the Accords can actually help stabilize the Palestinian arena.

Chapters:

00:00 — Welcome to ROPESCAST

00:50 — Bahrain Under Fire

03:33 — Why Iran Targets Bahrain

07:12 — The Myth of Bahrain’s “Shia Majority”

12:28 — Did the Abraham Accords Make Bahrain a Target?

15:25 — “The Gulf Will Never Be the Same Again”

16:34 — Was the Iran War Worth It?

24:26 — Inside Iran’s Fragile Power Structure

28:21 — Abraham Accords 2.0

36:14 — Can Arabs Ever Accept Israel?

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Our new ROPESCAST episode features a high-stakes dialogue between host Ksenia Svetlova and Elliott Abrams, a veteran U.S. diplomat and foundational figure in American foreign policy who served as Deputy National Security Advisor and Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela.

The discussion offers an analysis of the recent conflict with the Iranian regime, interrogating the strategic paradox of an American kinetic campaign that successfully neutralized key military assets while intentionally eschewing a ground invasion, thereby leaving the regime’s governance structures and its control over the Strait of Hormuz effectively intact.

Moving beyond the tactical, Abrams—now a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations—analyzes the ties between Israel and the US and discusses the military aid to Israel, settler violence and upcoming elections in Israel.

The dialogue concludes by evaluating the Abraham Accords’ durability after the war with Iran, illustrating how the framework navigated its most severe geopolitical stress test to date.

Chapters:

00:00 — Meet Elliott Abrams: Inside U.S. Middle East Strategy

08:16 — Why Trump Went to War Without Europe

13:31 — Gulf States Tried to Stop the War — Then Got Hit Anyway

17:34 — “We Cannot Afford Another North Korea”

20:36 — Did Netanyahu Convince Trump to Attack Iran?

23:22 — The Truth About Iran’s “Destroyed” Nuclear Program

27:45 — Is America Turning Against Israel?

35:30 — Has Israel Lost the Democratic Party?

40:35 — Elliott Abrams on Settler Violence & Qatar’s Influence

45:33 — Will Saudi Arabia Ever Normalize With Israel?

48:23 — The Future of the Middle East After the Iran War

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What happens when the "ghosts" of history dictate the wars of the future? In this episode of ROPESCAST, Ksenia Svetlova sits down with a man who has lived through the heart of the Iranian fire: Ambassador John Limbert.

A veteran diplomat and scholar, Limbert holds a perspective few on earth possess—having spent 444 days as a hostage in Tehran during the 1979 crisis. Together, we go beyond the headlines to exercise the historical traumas that continue to haunt the Middle East today. We explore the enduring legacy of the 1953 coup that toppled Mohammad Mosaddeq and the seismic shift of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, analyzing how these "ghosts" still drive the strategic logic of the regime in Tehran.

Turning to the present, Ambassador Limbert provides a masterclass in diplomacy and realism as we analyze the current US-Israeli war. Is the region trapped in a cycle of "kinetic deterrence," or is there an exit ramp from the escalating chaos in the Gulf? From the revolutionary DNA of the IRGC to the possibility of a regime demise, this is a deep-dive into the quagmire that has defined the last half-century—and the forces that will shape the next.

Tune in for a conversation that bridges the gap between the trauma of the past and the high-stakes strategy of 2026.

Chapters:

00:00 – Welcome to ROPESCAST

00:34 – Meet Ambassador John Limbert: Diplomat, Hostage, Iran Expert

01:50 – Is War with Iran Inevitable? A Diplomat’s Perspective

03:55 – A “Greek Tragedy”: 47 Years Leading to Conflict

05:41 – Why Do So Many Support the War?

07:07 – Iran’s Rhetoric & the Road to Escalation

10:38 – The 1979 Revolution: How Iran Transformed Overnight

18:11 – Two Irans: Modern vs. Traditional Society

23:15 – 444 Days Hostage: Inside the U.S. Embassy Crisis

39:11 – Can This Regime Fall?

44:13 – What Could Actually Bring Change in Iran?

50:35 – Final Prognosis: What Happens Next?

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In this deeply personal and high-stakes conversation, Iranian activist and former political dissident Dr. Daniel Dana joins the ROPESCAST to discuss what he believes is the imminent collapse of the Islamic Republic—and what comes next.

Sentenced to death three times and forced into exile, Dana shares his decades-long fight against the regime, offering a rare insider perspective on Iran’s opposition movement, the role of the diaspora, and the possibility of a democratic future.

We dive into the critical questions shaping this moment:Can external pressure and internal unrest truly topple the regime?

What are the real risks of civil war or another authoritarian replacement?And is Iran on the brink of becoming the first democratic model in the region?

The conversation also explores the deeper historical ties between Iran and Israel, the vision of renewed relations, and how a post-regime Iran could transform the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

Chapters:

0:00 – Welcome to the ROPESCAST & Intro to Dr. Daniel Dana

1:04 – From Champion Gymnast to Anti-Regime Activist

3:01 – The Human Side of War in Iran Today

8:01 – Could Democracy Survive in Post-Regime Iran?

13:08 – How He Imagines the Regime Will Collapse: Step by Step

16:00 – Role of the Diaspora in Iran’s Future

21:38 – Reimagining Iran-Israel Relations & Ending Anti-Semitism

28:03 – Life in Pre-Revolution Iran: Freedom and Women’s Rights

30:13 – The Middle East After Iran: Proxies, Peace, and Democracy

32:58 – Closing Thoughts & Where to Learn More About Danny Dana

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